Monday, December 24, 2007

The Grinch tried to steal Hillary Clinton's Christmas, but new Iowa Polls say, 'Bah Humbug!'

Iowa poll says Clinton breaking away from the pack
WASHINGTON (CNN) — A stunning new Iowa poll seems to show the New York senator with an apparent double-digit lead over her nearest rival among likely Democratic caucus goers, with voting just over a week away.

Iowa polling is notoriously difficult because of the unpredictable nature of caucus voting. Still, the Clinton campaign is still sure to view these results as an early Christmas gift: she and Barack Obama were neck-and-neck in last week’s American Research Group poll. In the new survey, conducted December 20-23, she leads the Illinois senator by 15 percentage points, 34 to 19 percent. Obama is now in a statistical tie for second place with John Edwards, who has 20 percent of the vote.

Obama seems to have lost ground among male voters: last week, he led the field with 27 percent support, followed by 21 for Clinton and 19 for Edwards. This week, the leaders are Clinton and Edwards, with 28 and 27 percent support among Democratic men. Obama has 16 percent support, and Joe Biden has 11 percent.
As Hillary Clinton appears to be breaking away from the pack, the Republican race may be tightening up: just a few days after Mike Huckabee appeared to lead Mitt Romney by an 11-point margin among likely Republican caucus goers, the two are back in a statistical tie, 23 to 21 percent. John McCain has 17 percent of the vote, Rudy Giuliani has 14 percent — and Ron Paul has 10 percent in the latest poll, up from 4 percent last week.

Huckabee’s loss may also be attributed to male voters. Last week, he had 31 percent support among Republican men; this week, he and Rudy Giuliani are tied at 20 percent. John McCain and Mitt Romney both have the support of 17 percent of the GOP’s likely male caucus goers.

The surveys have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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